The competition ladder consists of some player aliases having the full name "AutoTipper". These players are actually automated computer players; their tips are determined by various honest algorithms.

Always chooses the home team (ie. team X in an X-vs-Y game). The theory is that if a team is playing at their home ground they will have a playing advantage. The home ground advantage appears to be most beneficial for interstate teams.

Parameter | Formula |
---|---|

Winner | The home team |

Margin | [average of all past winning margins?] |

Std. Dev. | 40 |

Probability | (num_home_wins+1) / (num_matches_played+2) |

Chooses the team which currently occupies the higher position on the AFL ladder. The theory is that they have won more games in the past so they would probably do better in this match. Does not take home ground advantages into account.

Parameter | Formula |
---|---|

Winner | [the team with the current highest AFL ladder position] |

Margin | [details] |

Std. Dev. | 40 |

Probability | (winners_points + 4) / (winners_points + losers_points + 8) |

The Bookie's payout figures are normalized and used to compute what they think the probabilities of each team winning are.

Parameter | Formula |
---|---|

Winner | Team with higher Probability |

Margin | [details] |

Std. Dev. | 40 |

Probability | [normalized Bookie's odds] |

For the probabilistic competition this is the "null" tipper which tips p=0.5 for every match. It's score will always be zero. For the Gaussian competition it always picks a margin of 0 and a standard deviation of 40 (which most human players seem to use). There is no way to "sit on the fence" in the normal competition.

Parameter | Formula |
---|---|

Winner | N/A |

Margin | 0 |

Std. Dev. | 40 |

Probability | 0.5 |

A system which ranks teams based on their "Elo" scores, similar to that used in professional chess. Incorporates a HGA (home ground advantage) parameter.

Parameter | Formula |
---|---|

Winner | (implied by Probability) |

Margin | N/A |

Std. Dev. | N/A |

Probability | [algorithm based on the team's Elo scores] |

Performs an "optimal" posterior weighting of 3 sub-tippers: EloHomeAway, Bookie's Odds, and the "null" tipper (which picks p=0.5 for everything).

Parameter | Formula |
---|---|

Winner | (implied by Probability) |

Margin | N/A |

Std. Dev. | N/A |

Probability | [algorithm based on blending the 3 sub-tippers] |

Performs a posterior weighting of
every other player's tips *after* they have entered them.
The weights are based on the bit scores of each player so far
in the season. Note that this tipper has access to other player's
tips so it is "cheating" slightly.

Parameter | Formula |
---|---|

Winner | (implied by Probability) |

Margin | N/A |

Std. Dev. | N/A |

Probability | [algorithm based on blending other player's tips] |

An algorithm which only predicts probability p can be used to predict
a margin m (assuming a standard deviation s) by choosing m such that
the integral from (-Infinity..0) of the distribution ~N(m,s^{2})
is equal to p.
Note that this is not the only way in which this could be done.

©
Faculty of Information Technology,
Monash University.
Web site originally designed and developed by David Powell and Torsten Seemann. Please direct queries to monash.footy@gmail.com. Safe Content Rating. |